Robusta coffee hits a two-week low as Indonesian supply pressures the market, while cocoa is supported by reduced production expectations.

(1) Intercontinental Exchange Robusta coffee futures dropped to a two-week low on Thursday, with the main contract falling about 1.5% to $3,739 per ton and intraday touching $3,714 per ton. The supply side was affected by news of newly harvested beans coming to market in Indonesia and the nearing end of the harvest, although the number of fruits is gradually declining. (2) Farmers in Indonesia's main producing regions reported favorable weather this week, and harvesting continues but the number of ripe red fruits is decreasing. Global coffee bean output is expected to reach a record of about 189.7 million bags in the 2026/27 season, with a U.S. Department of Agriculture report putting pressure on long-term supply prospects. Arabica coffee futures also declined by around 0.4%. (3) London cocoa futures edged up about 0.2% to £3,980 per ton, while New York cocoa futures rose about 0.3% to $5,345. Institutions forecast a sharp narrowing of the global cocoa surplus in the 2026/27 season. El Niño weather is expected to impact output while grinding demand remains strong, providing a bottom support for prices. (4) Raw sugar futures gained about 0.5% to 14.82 cents per pound, boosted by further rises in energy markets. High energy prices may prompt more sugarcane to be diverted to biofuel ethanol production, thus curbing sugar output. However, white sugar prices dropped slightly by about 0.4%.