Polymarket: The probability that "the next Claude Opus model will be released by July 23, 2026" is currently reported at 61%, up 51% in the past 24 hours.

According to monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool, Polymarket currently shows a 61% probability that "the next Claude Opus model will be released on July 23, 2026," up 51% in the past 24 hours. In addition, the probability for "release by July 24" is currently at 9%; and for "release by July 25," it's at 5%.

This event will be settled based on the date (Eastern Time, US) when Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the public. Only models that are officially named "Opus" by Anthropic and are open to the public (including public testing or open waitlists) are valid. Other models such as Sonnet and Haiku are not included, and final settlement will be based primarily on Anthropic's official information.