Bitunix Analyst: Dual Chokepoint Crisis Approaches as Market Faces Both Energy Shock and Long-term Bond Pressure

BlockBeats news, on July 23, the situation in the Middle East has escalated from a "single strait risk" to a "dual chokepoint risk." Both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea–Bab el-Mandeb Strait are simultaneously facing military threats, with Iran and the Houthi armed group applying pressure on shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea respectively. The United States has simultaneously deployed additional special forces, fighter jets, and long-range bombers to the Middle East theatre. What the market truly needs to be wary of is not just the impact on oil prices, but a structural rise in global energy transportation and insurance costs. As Brent crude once again approaches 95 US dollars, this is no longer a short-term supply and demand issue, but rather a reassessment of global logistics and energy security risk premiums in asset pricing.

What is even more noteworthy is that this energy shock is misaligned with global central bank policies. Although the European Central Bank is highly likely to keep rates unchanged this week, the sharp rebound in energy prices within a month is prompting the market to allow space for another rate hike in September; in Japan, due to the weakening yen and imported inflationary pressures, there is an open attitude towards accelerating rate hikes. In contrast, although the decline in US June CPI has temporarily eased pressure on the Federal Reserve for an immediate rate hike in July, after Waller dropped forward guidance, market predictability for future policy paths has noticeably decreased. The swaps market has fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike before the end of September, meaning the market is no longer trading on "whether rates will rise this month," but rather "whether the energy shock will cause inflation to stay elevated again."

The signals released by the long-term bond market are equally impossible to ignore. The yield on the 30-year US Treasury has remained above 5%, a rare record in nearly 20 years, reflecting triple pressures from the fiscal deficit, AI infrastructure financing, and inflation risks. Weaker foreign buying and a domestic preference for shorter-duration debt mean that future US government financing costs will face higher hurdles. The key range the market is now watching is no longer 5%, but rather whether a level around 5.25% could exert substantial pressure on equity valuations and financial stability.

AI capital expenditure has also become another underestimated variable. Google has raised its 2026 capital expenditure projection to 195 billion–205 billion US dollars, OpenAI has raised its 2030 cloud computing spending estimate to 700 billion US dollars, and AMD has reached a multi-billion-dollar chip and investment agreement with Anthropic. This means that tech giants will continue to issue substantial amounts of long-term bonds in the coming years, competing for long-term funds with the US Treasury. The market is entering a phase where "government deficits + AI infrastructure" are jointly absorbing global savings, making it even harder for long-term rates to fall quickly.

The Trump administration's policy mix is also increasing inflation uncertainty. On the one hand, it is preparing to launch a new round of Section 301 tariffs against dozens of economies; on the other hand, it is granting a two-year zero-tariff buffer period for generic drugs, showing that the White House is still seeking a balance between "external pressure" and "domestic price control." The problem is, if oil prices remain high and gasoline prices climb back above 4 US dollars per gallon, which is further compounded by tariff costs, the inflationary pressure may be more persistent than the market currently expects, and will directly affect political risk ahead of the November mid-term elections.

From an asset pricing perspective, the most important second-layer signal at present is: the market is simultaneously facing both "energy supply risk" and "funding supply constraints." The former pushes up inflation and transportation costs; the latter, through long-term Treasury yields and AI financing demand, drives up the global cost of funds. This combination means that it will become even harder for risk asset valuations to expand, and capital will be more inclined toward short-duration assets and targets with cash flow defensive capabilities. What truly requires attention is not just whether oil can break through 100 US dollars, but whether the 30-year US Treasury yield will form a new normal range above 5%; once the market accepts this level, the global discount rate system for assets will have to be repriced.