The Iran war continues, the "safety cushion" of the US economy has failed, and diesel prices have become a key indicator.

智通财经2026/07/23 02:01

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The turmoil in the energy market triggered by the Iran war is exposing the U.S. economy to unprecedented vulnerability. The inventory and capacity "buffer" that once cushioned surging oil prices has now grown increasingly thin. Even if the intensity of the conflict is lower than at the onset, this war will continue to erode the living standards of the American public.
The most crucial economic indicator at present is not gasoline, but diesel prices. According to Rabobank's head of energy strategy: "Diesel is undoubtedly the lifeblood of the U.S. economy." Last week, the U.S. diesel benchmark price soared nearly 34 cents to $5.13 per gallon, marking the biggest weekly increase since the first week of the war. Diesel prices directly determine jet fuel surcharges and nationwide logistics costs, thereby driving up the price of almost all goods.
The root of the problem lies in refinery capacity constraints. U.S. refinery capacity utilization has reached 96.1%, the physical limit, making further increases in production difficult. EIA data shows that inventories at the key crude oil delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma, have fallen to "tank bottom" levels, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to 311 million barrels, the lowest since March 1983.
The compounding effects of the international situation have intensified supply shortages. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is ongoing—over the past three months, Ukraine has attacked 24 of Russia's 34 largest refineries, and Russia has shifted from a diesel exporter to an importer. Meanwhile, although Brent crude oil prices have risen to about $96 per barrel, the significance of this economic indicator is now less than the retail prices actually paid by consumers.
Although June's CPI data offered a brief respite, the impact of rising energy prices is likely only delayed, not diminished. A survey shows that 37% of U.S. voters are using credit cards more frequently for daily expenses due to rising food and gasoline prices—a figure that has risen by 6 percentage points since April. The White House has released strategic petroleum reserves and relaxed shipping restrictions, but the effect of these tools has likely already been absorbed by the market.
Only a complete end to the conflict will allow oil prices to fall. Analysts expect gasoline and diesel prices to remain high at least until Labor Day, with some relief only as demand falls afterward. In the long term, surging demand will eventually drive the construction of new refineries, but this will take time and there is no short-term solution.

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The Iran war continues, the "safety cushion" of the US economy has failed, and diesel prices have become a key indicator.

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