On 22 July 2026, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared fund manager and author Lawrence Lepard’s view that Bitcoin’s (BTC) current stagnation relative to gold’s 67% gain mirrors the 2020 market cycle. Lepard argued that gold moved first in 2020 before BTC rallied sharply, suggesting the current divergence reflects a familiar pattern rather than a breakdown in BTC’s long-term trajectory.
In 2025, gold delivered one of its strongest annual performances in years, gaining approximately 67% from about $2,623 per ounce at the beginning of the year to more than $4,300 by year-end. Gold remained on its upward trend in early 2026, reaching record highs over $5,000–$5,589 per ounce in January, before pulling back.
In contrast, Bitcoin has shown relative flatness in the recent period. After reaching an all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025, it reversed sharply and finished the year near $87,000 to $88,000, posting a net decline of roughly 6–7%, significantly underperforming the precious metal.
Lawrence Lepard, author of The Big Print, makes a direct comparison between Bitcoin’s recent performance and events in 2020. He points out that gold rose first when monetary fears started to increase, from around $1,300 to $2,000 per ounce, whereas Bitcoin initially remained relatively flat before exploding higher.
“Gold has never gone up 5x in seven months,” said Lepard, arguing that Bitcoin has historically delivered much larger gains than gold during periods of monetary expansion. The comparison reinforces his broader view that Bitcoin serves as “monetary debasement insurance” in a credit money system that requires continuous money supply expansion.
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});At press time, BTC trades at $65,538.37, down 1.3% in the last 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $1.31T, while gold trades at $4,133.69, up 1.52% over the same period, with a market capitalization of $27.89T. Despite Bitcoin’s recent weakness, analysts are monitoring historical market cycles for any clues regarding its next major move.
Many analysts believe Bitcoin remains in a longer-term bull market. Lawrence Lepard remains among the most bullish, forecasting Bitcoin could reach $180,000 to $200,000 within one to two years as continued monetary expansion increases demand for scarce assets.
However, the forecast remains subject to macroeconomic conditions. Central bank policy, rate cuts and continued demand for hard assets may continue to provide a positive environment for higher prices, though regulatory uncertainty, economic shocks or extended risk-off sentiment may continue to stall recoveries. Even so, Lepard argues Bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it a long-term hedge against ongoing currency debasement.
Related: Bitcoin vs Gold Debate Grows as Analyst Sees BTC Rotation Ahead
