34% Cargo Volume at Bab-el-Mandeb Strait Evaporates: When Saudi Arabia's 'Plan B' Yanbu Port Also Becomes a Target

Saudi Arabia's "Plan B" to bypass the Strait of Hormuz is facing new challenges.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on the 22nd, the international market service provider Kpler stated on social media that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab—the two major international energy shipping lanes—fell simultaneously on the 21st. This reflects a further rise in risk aversion among global shipping companies amid ongoing regional security tensions.

Data shows that on the 21st, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz dropped by 31% from the previous day to 9 ships; while the number traversing Bab al-Mandab decreased by 34% to only 29 ships.

According to reports, on Monday, the Houthi forces issued warnings via radio broadcasts and written communications, cautioning all ships that have previously docked at Saudi ports against crossing Bab al-Mandab, or else they may be targeted "at any location within the Yemeni armed forces’ operational range." Within less than 72 hours, this threat rapidly spread through the shipping market—at least four tankers loaded with Saudi crude oil urgently changed course in the Red Sea on Tuesday, as the shipping industry began to actively avoid risks.

This means that as the capacity of the Strait of Hormuz drops sharply, Yanbu port, which shoulders the main responsibility for Saudi Arabia's westbound oil exports, is also becoming exposed to new security risks. The market is increasingly concerned that the global energy supply chain is shifting from a single chokepoint risk to a new scenario where both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab are under simultaneous pressure.

Houthi warnings rapidly transmitted, at least 4 oil tankers changed course

On Monday, the Houthis launched two actions simultaneously. On one hand, they issued radio broadcasts to vessels sailing in the Red Sea, warning ships that have docked at Saudi ports not to transit through Bab al-Mandab, which connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden; on the other hand, they sent written notifications to shipping companies serving Saudi Red Sea ports, stating that such vessels may become targets.

Market reaction was far faster than expected. According to the Financial Times, quoting informed sources, on Tuesday at least four tankers loaded with Saudi crude oil changed course in the Red Sea, with three of them having just loaded at Yanbu port. This number has increased from the previously reported two, indicating that shipping companies are rapidly adjusting routes to mitigate risk.

Meanwhile, shipping activity through Bab al-Mandab has cooled noticeably. Data shows that over the past two weeks, cargo volume through this strait has decreased by 34%.

Yanbu port under pressure, Saudi export "safety valve" faces challenges

As the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Yanbu port's importance continues to rise.

Since April, Saudi Arabia has consistently used its east–west pipeline to transport crude oil from its eastern production areas to Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast for export, with daily exports currently around 4.9 million barrels. Given that the number of vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz per day has dropped from about 110 before the conflict to around 12, Yanbu port has essentially become Saudi Arabia's core hub for maintaining global oil supply.

Kpler data shows that currently, Yanbu port undertakes the vast majority of Saudi Arabia's alternative export capacity. The report points out that the Houthis’ inclusion of ships docked at Saudi ports as potential targets means that this key crude oil export route faces the risk of being cut off.

In response to rising threats, some tankers have begun turning off their AIS automatic identification systems to reduce the risk of being tracked.

Maritime intelligence firm Windward's analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann stated that Iran and the Houthis are forming a "pincer movement" against global energy transportation. The Strait of Hormuz has already been severely restricted, and now the alternative export route Saudi Arabia relies on is under pressure from Bab al-Mandab. The refined oil products market is especially vulnerable to impact.