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The Black Sea conflict and North American drought drive a strong opening for agricultural commodities in the night trading session.

The Black Sea conflict and North American drought drive a strong opening for agricultural commodities in the night trading session.

智通财经智通财经2026/07/22 14:06
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  1. At 21:30 Beijing time on Wednesday evening, CBOT grain and oilseed futures will resume trading, with the market widely expected to open broadly higher, led by wheat, which is estimated to rise by about 12 to 18 cents per bushel. Continued attacks on grain vessels and port infrastructure in the Black Sea region are further disrupting supply expectations.
  2. The first day of the annual Hard Red Spring Wheat Tour in North Dakota showed that the average yield estimate for the southern part of the state is about 46.0 bushels per acre, roughly 8% lower than the same period last year and only slightly above the five-year average. Concerns about yields combined with geopolitical risks have led to a significant strengthening of nearby CBOT Soft Red Winter Wheat contracts during electronic trading hours.
  3. Corn is expected to rise by about 3 to 6 cents, mainly driven by higher crude oil prices, which boosts demand expectations for corn as a biofuel feedstock. At the same time, forecasts of hot and dry weather in the U.S. Midwest are expected to add extra pressure on regional crop development, with new crop contracts also recording notable gains.
  4. Soybeans are estimated to increase by about 6 to 8 cents, following the rise in crude oil and the tightening effect of Middle East tensions on global oil supply. Nearby contracts are also moving higher, with the overall agricultural market still supported by a combination of geopolitical risk premiums and weather-related premiums, maintaining a relatively strong trend.
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