Well-known trader: Bitcoin has completed a five-wave correction, structure indicates the bottom may have formed

BlockBeats News, on July 22, well-known trader Killa (@KillaXBT) posted that in past Bitcoin bear markets, there is typically a 5-wave adjustment and two important highs are formed. The first high usually appears during the first significant rebound after the peak, known as the "complacency high," when the market generally believes the bull market has returned, after which the price usually continues to hit new lows.

He pointed out that similar structures appeared in the cycles of 2014, 2022, and 2026. After the complacency high forms, the market generally sees a "dead cat bounce" and establishes a short-term bottom; as market sentiment deteriorates and short positions accumulate, a short squeeze then drives a rebound in price. The final bottom is typically formed after the second major retest.

Killa believes that at present, BTC has already swept the bottom formed by the "dead cat bounce" and has completed a 5-wave adjustment structure similar to previous cycles. From a structural perspective, the correction wave has ended and the bottom may already be in place.

However, he remains cautious about the timing cycle. Previous bear markets have usually lasted about 365 days before forming the ultimate bottom, while this cycle, if the low has already appeared, has lasted only about 260 days, approximately 100 days ahead of historic cycles. He currently maintains a 50-50 outlook, but believes that compared to making a significantly lower low, the probability of forming a higher low next is higher.