Caixin Futures: Overseas copper spot shortage intensifies short squeeze risk; lithium carbonate rebounds from its bottom and closes up 2.21%

智通财经2026/07/22 13:06

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SHFE Copper is operating with slight strength and volatility. While macro-level geopolitical risks have not fully dissipated, market sentiment is marginally recovering. On the supply side, long-term mine supply remains tight and visible inventories of refined copper are at low levels. Overseas copper spot markets are experiencing shortages, with the risk of a short squeeze intensifying. Domestic consumption is mainly driven by just-in-time procurement while overall demand remains weak. Attention should be paid to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate path. In the short term, copper prices are expected to run with strength and volatility underpinned by strong fundamentals.
SHFE Aluminum is fluctuating. Macro sentiment is marginally turning warmer. In terms of fundamentals, the launch of new overseas projects and the continuous resumption of electrolytic aluminum production are expected to keep supply increasing. However, the global trend of destocking aluminum ingots will be hard to reverse in the short term. With both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, aluminum prices are mainly expected to fluctuate in the near term.
SHFE Zinc is running with volatility. The global tight supply pattern of zinc concentrate has not changed, and low processing fees continue to provide bottom support. However, with smelter profits intact, there has so far been no further production cuts. On the demand side, the off-season characteristics are evident, and downstream acceptance of high zinc prices is low. With mixed bullish and bearish influences, zinc prices may remain volatile in the short term.
Precious metals are fluctuating. Despite ongoing geopolitical disturbances, precious metals have rebounded in the past two days, gradually decoupling from their previous negative correlation with crude oil. Gold may be in the early stage of a narrative shift; though Europe, Japan, and South Korea have successively entered interest rate hike cycles and expectations for US Federal Reserve rate hikes are brewing, large central banks’ gold purchases provide a price floor. In the short term, prices will mainly fluctuate, while long-term support remains. Strategically, buying on dips can be considered.
Lithium carbonate found a bottom and rebounded, with the main contract closing up 2.21% at 143,300 yuan per ton. Today, the mid-price for battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 600 yuan to 142,000 yuan per ton, and warehouse receipts decreased by 158 tons. Although current lithium carbonate inventory reduction is strong, the market remains generally cautious about its sustainability. This is because, compared to the certainty of the supply side, demand carrying capacity still needs time to be tested. Recently, pessimism about forward demand has driven prices down, but as current fundamentals remain supportive, prices are expected to stabilize after pessimistic sentiment fades.

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