Caixin Futures: Black metal sector maintains weak performance at low levels, with iron ore and coking coal under simultaneous pressure and fluctuating.

⑴ Steel prices are fluctuating at low levels, with weak demand-side drivers persisting and upward price momentum lacking. From a technical perspective, the October rebar and coil contracts are experiencing overall increased open interest with declining prices, as bears remain active. For the October rebar contract, pay attention to support at the 3,065 yuan per ton level, with overhead resistance near the 40-day moving average. In terms of valuation, steel mills are facing expanding losses, and futures prices remain below the cost of electric arc furnaces in East China, indicating that current valuations are not high. Inventory pressure remains, and ongoing weak fundamentals continue to constrain the market. Caution is advised regarding the risk of negative feedback if macro policies are not implemented as expected.⑵ Iron ore is trading in a weak, low-level range, as global shipments and arrivals have rebounded significantly month-on-month, but the actual impact of supply disruptions on shipments remains to be verified. Hot metal production continues to decline, further weakening just-in-time demand support. On the market, the September contract is falling on increased open interest, with bears actively pressing prices lower; support has shifted down to 730 yuan per ton, while resistance is concentrated at the 5-day, 10-day, and 40-day moving averages. Without a rebound in hot metal production, the market lacks effective upward drivers, and prices are expected to remain weak and range-bound in the short term.⑶ Coking coal is fluctuating at low levels, with numerous mines in Shanxi still suspended or reducing output. The pace of production resumption is slow, and new safety supervision regulations continue to put pressure on the market, making a significant short-term output recovery unlikely. Hot metal production continues downward, coke has entered a price reduction cycle, downstream coking and steel enterprises are making more cautious purchases, and traders are accelerating price reductions and sales, causing spot prices to remain weak in the short term. Technically, the September contract continues to fluctuate within its range, with resistance at the 40-day and 60-day moving averages, and support at the 1,250 yuan per ton level. The market is currently in a tug-of-war between slow supply recovery and weakening demand, leaving little room for upward or downward movement. It is recommended to consider coking coal as a long position on the raw material side to capture potential stagewise rebounds from supply contractions, while remaining alert to the pressure that declining demand may place on the upside.⑷ Coke is experiencing weak driving factors, with ongoing declines in coking coal prices and a slight recovery in coke producers' profits, while overall production remains stable. On the demand side, the number of blast furnaces in operation is increasing, but steel mills are under profit pressure and are strongly motivated to suppress coke prices, leading to reduced procurement. The main futures contracts are trading at a large discount to spot, and current market valuations are relatively low. Losses at steel mills are continuing to expand, increasing the tendency to pressure down raw material prices, and the first round of coke price reductions is already underway. In the short term, the market lacks momentum for a rebound, with valuation at risk of further decline, although a large basis may limit downside space.⑸ Silicon manganese is fluctuating at low levels, with fundamentals remaining weak and steady. Port inventories of manganese ore have declined slightly compared to previous periods, but demand is weak. Producers maintain a low operating rate, and in-plant inventories continue to accumulate, resulting in overall weak drivers.