If the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is blocked, the global supply chain crisis will be more severe than that of the Hormuz Strait.

智通财经2026/07/22 12:16

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Northeastern University supply chain expert Sanders pointed out that if the Houthis implement their announced blockade of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the global economic shock path will be drastically different from that of the Strait of Hormuz—the former poses a broader crisis to the trade and logistics system, while the latter is more focused on the impact to energy supply.
The Strait of Hormuz sees about 21 million barrels of crude oil pass through daily, serving purely as a critical choke point for energy supply. Bab-el-Mandeb, though handling only about 4.2 million barrels per day, covers approximately 15% of global maritime trade and 30% of container transportation, involving a wide range of products such as electronics, automotive parts, food, and industrial raw materials.
Saudi Arabia can mitigate the risk of Hormuz by transporting crude oil from eastern fields to Red Sea ports via its east-west pipeline, but if both key straits are closed simultaneously, the world loses critical transport redundancy. Detouring around Africa would add over ten days to voyages, increase fuel and insurance costs, and weaken effective shipping capacity as vessels and containers turn over more slowly.
Sanders believes that joint blockades of these two critical nodes will trigger mutually reinforcing supply chain crises, with energy prices, freight rates, inflation, and manufacturing delays forming a vicious cycle. The market must closely monitor physical economic indicators, such as whether Bab-el-Mandeb traffic continues to decrease and whether diesel and jet fuel prices decouple from crude oil trends, to assess whether the current situation has surpassed the anxiety evidenced in financial markets. The biggest unknown remains whether the Houthis actually have the capability to enforce a blockade.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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If the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is blocked, the global supply chain crisis will be more severe than that of the Hormuz Strait.

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