u.today 
Market analyst Jordi Visser believes the next major cryptocurrency rally may depend on the return of a familiar force: retail investor enthusiasm.
Visser argues that the market is still missing the speculative energy that typically drives the final stages of major bull cycles.
In his view, Dogecoin ($DOGE) is one of the clearest indicators of whether retail investors are returning.
“The crypto advance continues with my 40 name ecosystem index closing above the mid-June highs and $BTC just below,” Visser wrote.
“I am still looking for a true ecosystem breakout to need the energy from retail best seen from $DOGE which had a record 65th close below the 20 day moving average.”
Visser’s thesis is not that Dogecoin directly controls the direction of Bitcoin or the entire crypto market.
Beyond Bitcoin
Visser’s argument centers around his Crypto Financial Rails 40 Equal Weight Index, which is a basket that tracks the performance of the crypto ecosystem.
The index includes 40 crypto-related companies, protocols, and assets.
According to the performance chart shared by Visser, the Crypto Financial Rails 40 has outperformed both Bitcoin and Dogecoin in 2026.
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The index started the year at a level of 100 and fell sharply during the January and February market downturn, However, it recovered through the spring.
$DOGE remained significantly weaker at approximately 57–58 than $BTC and the broader index.
This clearly shows that retail-driven speculation has not yet returned.
Dogecoin’s longest streak below the 20-day moving average
$DOGE’s prolonged weakness relative to its short-term trend is truly staggering.
A 20-day moving average tracks the average closing price of an asset over the previous 20 trading days and is commonly used by traders to measure momentum.
When an asset consistently trades above the 20-day moving average, it usually indicates stronger buying pressure.
$DOGE has now recorded its longest continuous streak of daily closes below its 20-day moving average.
On July 21, $DOGE closed at approximately $0.0735, around 0.8% below its 20-day moving average.
The token had remained below that level for 65 consecutive days.
During this period, $DOGE declined approximately 29.4%.
However, the current streak is not the most severe downturn historically. A previous 57-day period between January and March 2025 resulted in a much larger decline of about 50.7%.
The difference is that the current weakness is notable because of its duration.
At first glance, $DOGE’s poor performance appears negative.
Despite its prolonged weakness, Dogecoin has recently shown signs of stabilization.
The token is trading near $0.072. However, the asset has yet to produce the type of explosive breakout associated with previous meme coin cycles.
