European power forward contracts rise with higher natural gas costs as Middle East tensions continue to disrupt energy supply expectations

智通财经2026/07/22 09:21

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All European benchmark electricity forward contracts rose across the board on Wednesday. The US carried out airstrikes against targets within Iran for the 11th consecutive night. Combined with the threat from Houthi forces to impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, market concerns over further disruptions to energy transportation continue to intensify.
Analysts pointed out that if the Strait of Mandeb is completely closed, global oil supply could fall by about 7%. Coupled with the ongoing impact of Middle East conflict on crude oil flows, rising natural gas prices are now feeding into power contracts. Germany’s 2027 baseload power contract increased by about 1.3% to 107.90 euros per megawatt-hour, the highest since November 2023, while France's contract for the same period surged by over 4% to 69 euros, marking the highest since mid-June last year.
On the spot market, German wind power supply is expected to decrease, offset by rising solar output and falling demand, with residual load forecast to increase by about 1.4 GW on Thursday. Germany’s intraday contract rose by approximately 15.7%, and France’s contract climbed by around 8%.
French nuclear power supply remains constrained. The Golfech Unit 2 in the south will continue reduced output until July 31 due to prolonged high temperatures, and the shutdown of Chooz Unit 2 in the north has been extended until August 5. Low river water levels caused by drought continue to pose additional challenges for cooling and transportation.

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