Caixin Futures: Lithium carbonate main contract plunges 4.22%, falling below 142,000 yuan as long-term oversupply continues to weigh on prices

智通财经2026/07/21 13:26

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Shanghai copper is operating in a mildly strong and volatile manner. While macro-level geopolitical risks have not fully subsided, market sentiment is marginally recovering. On the supply side, long-term mining resources remain tight, and refined copper visible inventories are relatively low. On the demand side, essential procurement dominates as consumption remains weak. In the short term, supported by strong fundamentals, copper prices are expected to fluctuate on the strong side.
Shanghai aluminum is showing range-bound volatility. Macro sentiment is moderately improving, but fundamentals are weighed down by new overseas capacity expected to form a medium- to long-term supply-side bearish factor. However, in the short term, the global de-stocking trend of aluminum ingots remains hard to reverse. With mixed bullish and bearish signals, aluminum prices are expected to remain mainly range-bound in the near term.
Shanghai zinc is experiencing range-bound movement. The global tightness in zinc mine supply remains unchanged, and persistently low treatment charges provide bottom support. However, the demand side is marked by a typical seasonal lull, with downstream sectors showing limited acceptance of high zinc prices. With both bullish and bearish factors at play, zinc prices are likely to remain volatile in the short term.
Precious metals are fluctuating. Geopolitical risks have not fully dissipated, but the extreme pessimism is gradually easing, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices. Iran has confirmed receipt of a short-term ceasefire proposal from intermediaries, prompting the market to reassess the likelihood of both parties resuming talks. However, geopolitical uncertainties remain strong and inflationary concerns persist, so precious metals are expected to continue trading in a volatile fashion.
Lithium carbonate is trending downward with volatility. The main contract fell by nearly 7% in early trading and narrowed the loss in the afternoon to finally close down 4.22% at 141,620 yuan per ton. Although fundamentals remain strong, the market has already priced in the logic of future oversupply. The window for a concentrated release of resumed and new domestic and overseas lithium capacities is approaching.
On the demand side, the benefit of subsidies is fading and the consensus for anti-internal competition among mid- and downstream enterprises is strengthening, resulting in intensified survival pressures for second- and third-tier battery manufacturers and continued compression of long-term demand potential. From a policy perspective, lithium battery consumption tax will be levied at 2% from September 2026, rising to 4% in September 2027, resulting in a "short-term positive, medium-term negative" pattern and increasingly clear bearish expectations for distant months.
The spot market has simultaneously weakened markedly; the midpoint price for battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 8,650 yuan to 141,400 yuan per ton. Despite a decrease of 336 tons in warehouse receipts today, the support for market sentiment remains limited. In the short term, there is little room for a rebound in lithium prices, and market performance remains under pressure.

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Caixin Futures: Lithium carbonate main contract plunges 4.22%, falling below 142,000 yuan as long-term oversupply continues to weigh on prices

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