Goldman Sachs sharply raises gold price forecast to $4,900. Central bank structural gold purchase wave reshapes supply and demand pattern; pullbacks are buying opportunities.

⑴ Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its gold price forecast in the latest research report, predicting that by the end of 2026, the gold price will reach $4,900 per ounce. The core rationale is the unprecedented, systematic gold purchases by global central banks, which is regarded as a long-term structural shift rather than a short-term tactical allocation. ⑵ Data shows that in May, global monetary authorities increased their gold holdings by a total of 81 tons, of which the People's Bank of China purchased 48 tons, accounting for nearly 60% of the total. Based on a three-month smoothed monthly purchase pace, the figure reached 67 tons, almost four times higher than the monthly average of 17 tons before 2022. The collective shift in reserve management strategies among emerging market central banks constitutes the core support for prices. ⑶ Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that the trigger for this wave of gold purchases can be traced back to the decision by Western countries in 2022 to freeze Russia's foreign exchange reserves. This event prompted various economies to reassess the safety of their reserve assets. Concerns over de-dollarization and the sustainability of Western sovereign debt have become key considerations driving the rise in the proportion of gold holdings. ⑷ Although current market expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve policy are exerting short-term pressure on gold prices and there has been some outflow from interest-rate-sensitive ETFs, the Goldman Sachs economic team expects no actual rate hikes this year. As such, the current headwinds will prove temporary. The institution forecasts that the average monthly gold purchases in 2026 will be around 50 tons, falling to 40 tons in 2027. Continuous buying will provide a solid market bottom. ⑸ The proportion of gold allocation in private investment portfolios remains far below historical averages. Should geopolitical uncertainty intensify or the process of reserve diversification accelerate, both retail and institutional funds are expected to flow in at scale. With multiple factors resonating, Goldman Sachs believes gold has entered a sustainable bull market cycle, and short-term corrections actually provide a window for medium- and long-term positioning.