Ceasefire hopes lower oil prices, gold rebounds nearly 2%

1. On Tuesday, international gold prices rebounded by nearly 2%, once hitting a one-week high at $4,084.01 per ounce, and are currently trading near $4,078 per ounce. Earlier reports indicated that Iran had received a proposal for a ten-day ceasefire, signaling an easing of geopolitical tensions, which led to a pullback in oil prices, thereby alleviating market concerns about inflation and providing support for gold. 2. Oil prices retreated from a one-month high after a senior Iranian official revealed that Tehran had received a ten-day ceasefire proposal from mediators, aimed at salvaging the interim agreement signed on June 17. However, news that Yemen’s Houthi group announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia has kept the market alert to risks of energy supply disruptions. 3. Analysts pointed out that gold is trying to find bottom support near $4,000 and attempting to resume an upward trajectory from this level. Although market focus on Middle East conflicts has somewhat decreased, geopolitical factors continue to influence short-term gold price fluctuations. 4. Regarding Federal Reserve policy expectations, although the market generally expects rates to remain unchanged at next week’s meeting, CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders still see about a 64% chance of a rate hike in September. The gold market is currently making a complex assessment between geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, and the path of monetary policy.