UBS releases SemiBytes bulletin: semiconductor sector enters a phase of differentiation

According to Tide Research, UBS released the SemiBytes Express on July 20, 2026, concluding that the semiconductor sector is shifting from broad gains to a phase of intense divergence, while the AI-driven group rally continues. The release of Kimi K3 has propelled an upgrade in the scale of open-source models and a longer context window, boosting demand for HBM and storage, with NVIDIA as the biggest beneficiary. Micron’s cumulative free cash flow over the next few years is expected to exceed 400 billion US dollars, and after the buyback ban is lifted, the theoretical buyback ratio could surpass 40%. Divergence within the analog chip sector has intensified, and stocks with higher AI exposure have received a 42x price-earnings premium. Lam Research, Broadcom, Seagate, Micron, and AMD are in an extremely crowded long position status.