Goldman Sachs: If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, Brent crude could exceed $120 in Q4, but the baseline forecast is $80.

智通财经2026/07/21 04:06

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(1) Goldman Sachs predicts that if the oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be disrupted, Brent crude prices could surpass $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter, although the bank does not consider this its base scenario.(2) Analysts point out that the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and the oil flow in the Persian Gulf dropping below 45% of pre-war levels have driven the recent increase in oil prices; the current baseline forecast is $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 per barrel next year, provided the tensions in the Middle East ease.(3) However, due to potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, the risks to the above forecasts are "skewed to the upside."

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