The Middle East conflict has lasted for five months but has not triggered "$200 oil". How have the five major defenses held back the crude oil price surge?

According to Zhitong Finance APP, some analysts had predicted that if a US-Iran war were to effectively block the Strait of Hormuz—a critical channel accounting for 20% of global supply—crude oil prices could reach as high as $150 or even $200 per barrel. However, Brent crude futures only peaked at $126 per barrel, and from the outbreak of the conflict on February 28 to June 11, when President Trump halted strikes against Iran, the average price held around $100 per barrel.

Even after fighting resumed following the breakdown of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, Brent crude only ascended to about $90 per barrel.

Market observers believe that the following five major factors have kept oil prices from "going crazy":

As the world’s largest oil importer, China unexpectedly acted as the stabilizer for oil prices. As of June, China lowered crude oil imports to nearly a ten-year low, restricted refined oil exports, and its petrochemical sector reduced output.

The United States, as the world’s largest oil producer, pumped even more crude. By April, its production reached a record 13.93 million barrels per day, and, as part of the International Energy Agency (IEA)–coordinated 400-million-barrel reserve release plan, the US released oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserves.

President Trump frequently made statements about peace agreements and the restoration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, continually dampening bullish momentum in the oil market.

As the largest oil exporter in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Arabia increased shipments from its Red Sea port of Yanbu, which helped offset the reduction in oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

Finally, traders report that the current physical supply of crude oil is ample, limiting oil prices’ reaction to the latest escalation in conflict.

On Monday, due to the escalation of US-Iran tensions and the Houthi forces—supported by Iran—announcing a ban on maritime traffic from Saudi Arabia, crude oil futures closed higher amid volatile trading. However, reports indicate that mediators are proposing a ten-day ceasefire and a revival of peace talks.

In a report, Rystad Energy pointed out that the pullback in oil prices from overnight highs reflects optimism regarding diplomatic efforts, rather than any substantial improvement in the oil market fundamentals—currently, the Strait of Hormuz is almost at a standstill, and the Houthis are threatening Saudi shipping via the Red Sea.

Jorge León, Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad, wrote: “If a ceasefire fails and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, coupled with an increased Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping, the risk of a sharp oil price rebound will be very high.” He added that the Houthi threat puts about 2.5 million barrels a day of Saudi oil at risk.

However, analysts at Kpler noted that a record 135 million barrels of crude oil currently at sea may limit the next wave of oil price increases.

Front-month Nymex August crude oil futures rose 0.9% to close at $83.23 per barrel; front-month Brent September crude oil futures climbed 1.3% to settle at $89.22 per barrel—both marking the highest close since June 12 and June 11, respectively.

Due to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, strong production, and ample remaining inventories continuing to offset summer cooling demand, US natural gas prices turned lower; the front-month Nymex August contract fell 1.7% to close at $2.860 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).