Houthi blockade threat in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may disrupt supply for Asian refiners

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智通财经2026/07/21 01:16

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The Houthi armed group in Yemen announced on Monday a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia. If they successfully block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a key passageway between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden—it would directly cut off Saudi Arabia’s most important alternative oil export route in case the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed. Analysts at Energy Aspects warn that this move could trigger a new round of oil price surges, disrupt global fuel supplies, and intensify economic pressure.
Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia is a crucial hub for exporting crude oil and fuels. According to Kpler data, since April, Yanbu’s daily exports have exceeded 4.5 million barrels of crude oil and fuels, about 70% of which are shipped to Asia. If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is closed, tankers would have to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, causing Asian refiners receiving these cargoes to face delays of about one month, and logistics bottlenecks would be further exacerbated as very large crude carriers cannot transit the Suez Canal.
The president of consulting firm Stratas Advisors said that if the disruption continues and seriously hampers crude oil shipment through the Red Sea, oil prices could climb back above $115 to $120 per barrel. Combined with rising freight and insurance costs, this would shake the global economy and could even trigger a recession.
The diesel market has already reacted. European diesel refining margins have surged to a historic high above $65 per barrel, as diesel and jet fuel shipped from Asia and the Middle East to Europe typically transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Since April, Saudi Arabia’s daily crude oil and fuel exports from Yanbu have exceeded 4.5 million barrels, about 70% of which flows to Asia. This blockade is an escalation of the US-Iran conflict, as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had already fallen sharply due to clashes between the US and Iran. The participation of the Houthi group means the conflict has expanded from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, putting the world’s two most important energy arteries at simultaneous risk.

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Houthi blockade threat in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may disrupt supply for Asian refiners

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