Goldman Sachs: Turkey May Tolerate Accelerated Depreciation of the Lira
智通财经2026/07/20 15:21Show original
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Goldman Sachs economists expect that Turkey will allow the lira to depreciate more rapidly in order to prioritize the stability of the balance of payments rather than continuing to make curbing inflation the primary goal. Goldman Sachs economists Clemens Grafe and Basak Edizgil wrote in a report that the lira's annualized depreciation against the dollar will reach a mid-range level of more than 20%, “even if this means that the pace of inflation decline will slow.” They added: “Given that financial stability depends on maintaining the current level of de-dollarization, a faster exchange rate depreciation means that interest rates need to remain above current market pricing.” Turkey's current plan for reducing inflation partly relies on boosting the real appreciation of the lira, i.e., having the lira's nominal depreciation rate remain below the inflation rate, to help ease price pressures. So far this year, the lira has depreciated about 9% against the dollar.
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