Indonesian Rupiah weakens as higher oil import costs stretch the trade balance

USD/IDR gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 18,100 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair holds ground as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) faces downward pressure as surging oil import costs stretch the nation's trade balance and stoke inflation. This heightens market anticipation ahead of Bank Indonesia’s (BI) policy meeting next week, with traders gauging whether the central bank will unleash further rate hikes to defend the currency following its cumulative 100 basis points of tightening in May–June.

While defensive monetary action and upcoming government fiscal interventions to cap food and industrial costs offer a safety net, the IDR remains vulnerable to broader risk-off sentiment.

The US Dollar (USD) recovers its daily losses amid rising risk aversion, which could be attributed to United States (US)-Iran tensions boosting oil prices and sparking fresh inflation concerns. This geopolitical friction threatens to prolong the Federal Reserve's (Fed) higher interest rate environment.

Traders are closely assessing the Federal Reserve's policy outlook in light of recently softened US inflation data. Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 3.5% in June from the three-year high of 4.2% set in May, coming in well below the market expectation of 3.8%. This weaker consumer inflation data initially helped reduce immediate concerns that the Fed would soon raise interest rates.

CME FedWatch Tool suggests that markets scaled back expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, with the implied probability falling to around 44% from 50% just a day earlier. However, because the interim US-Iran peace agreement reached last month has effectively unraveled, June’s inflation data does not yet capture the economic impact of this latest military escalation between the US and Iran.