Nigeria's crude oil production reaches a six-year high, exceeding quota and bringing new supply pressure to the market

⑴ Data released by the Nigerian Upstream Regulatory Commission on Sunday shows that the country's average daily crude oil production in June rose to 1.56 million barrels, 4% higher than the 1.5 million barrels daily quota allocated by OPEC, with a compliance rate reaching 104%. ⑵ Taking into account condensate oil, which is not subject to quota restrictions, Nigeria's total daily oil production in June averaged 1.735 million barrels, up from 1.7 million barrels in May, continuing an upward trend for the fourth consecutive month. ⑶ This production level marks the highest record since April 2020, representing the peak over the past 74 months, mainly driven by stable operations and improved pipeline reliability. ⑷ The smooth operation of production assets, combined with the absence of major pipeline disruption events, has effectively supported crude oil extraction and transportation efficiency, facilitating the continued release of the country's supply capacity. ⑸ The clear rebound momentum on the supply side, coupled with concerns over demand prospects triggered by Trump's tariff remarks, has led the market to adopt a more cautious outlook on supply-demand balance, reinforcing expectations of short-term pressure on oil prices. ⑹ Subsequent market focus will center on whether Nigeria can maintain its current output level, as well as the compliance of other oil-producing countries within the quota framework, with supply variables likely to become the core disruptive factor for recent oil market pricing.