SpaceX stock price drops nearly 30% from its peak, veteran investor comments: Flood of unlocked shares is coming, only worth $30 per share

According to Zhihui Finance, SpaceX (SPCX.US) has seen its stock price fall about 28% from its post-IPO closing peak, dropping over $200. Veteran investor George Noble has once again voiced bearish opinions and warned that the stock will face pressure from concentrated insider selling in the coming months.

Last Saturday, Noble posted a lengthy analysis on X, stating: "The largest IPO in history is also becoming the largest 'liquidity exit' in history." He bluntly said, "The structure of this IPO is designed to separate retail investors' funds from company equity."

Noble, a co-founder of the Fidelity Overseas Fund, pointed out that the valuation of SpaceX is seriously detached from its fundamentals. He estimated that the company had a price-to-sales ratio of over 90 times at its listing price of $135, and this ratio once approached 140 times after going public.

He also believes that the initial rise of the stock was not driven by fundamentals, but by what he called a "manufactured short squeeze." Noble stated that less than 5% of SpaceX shares were available for public trading post-IPO, yet the company was quickly included in the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ, IQQ) and the Russell Index (IWB, IWL), forcing passive funds and ETFs to buy billions of dollars’ worth of shares at a time when public float was extremely tight.

"Supply was negligible, but buying was mandatory—this is a manufactured short squeeze," wrote Noble.

Noble predicts that this situation is about to reverse. He pointed out that the company's announced lock-up schedule shows insider shares will be unlocked in batches—starting after the release of the Q2 earnings report, continuing until the end of the year, with the final batch set to be unlocked in June 2027.

According to Noble’s calculations, as employees and early investors gain the right to sell, these unblocking phases could cause a sharp expansion of the tradable shares. He believes that the main catalyst for the stock price in the coming months will not be the company’s fundamentals, but the disclosed unlocking schedule.

Noble stated that Starlink is SpaceX's only consistently profitable business, but that alone is not enough to support the company’s current valuation. He estimates that SpaceX’s fair value is about $30 per share and calls the company "the most severe large-cap valuation bubble I have ever seen."

Last Friday, SpaceX closed at about $145, only about $10 higher than its IPO price of $135.