Analyst: The current bitcoin rally is a rebound after a sharp decline, not the start of a new bull market
BlockBeats reported on May 10 that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr published a post expressing caution regarding the recent price trend of Bitcoin, stating that the current price rise is a corrective rebound following a steep drop, rather than the confirmed start of a new bull market. He pointed out that after BTC dropped from $125,000 to $60,000, the market has seen some recovery, but multiple on-chain indicators have not reached the historical bear market bottom ranges. For instance, Long-Term Holders (LTH) positions have yet to demonstrate a typical bottom accumulation pattern, and the market has not gone through a complete spot sell-off and panic-clearing phase.
On the macro side, Axel Adler Jr believes the market is also under pressure. Citing data, he noted that the US Consumer Confidence Index has dipped to a historic low of 48.2, while Brent crude oil remains near $100, heightening inflation concerns. Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 4.5%, putting further pressure on risk assets.
He stated that the current interest rate market is no longer betting on a rapid rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and has even started pricing in future rate hikes. Against this backdrop, he believes BTC still lacks sufficient confirmation of on-chain structure, stable spot demand, and a release of supply-side pressures, so he maintains a cautious stance.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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