Analysis: Bitcoin pulls back below $81,000 after failing to break the 200-day moving average, historical trends trigger market caution

According to Odaily, Bitcoin briefly approached the key 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA, around $83,300) on Wednesday but failed to make a decisive breakthrough and then fell back below $81,000. Meanwhile, the overall crypto market weakened, with the Smart Contract Platform Index falling more than 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the weakest performing major sector. The market generally considers the 200-day moving average as an important indicator for measuring long-term trends. If BTC can hold above this level, it would further reinforce the market narrative that “the bear market ended when it broke below $63,000 in February this year and a new bull market has begun.”

However, a similar situation occurred in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke through and tested the 200-day moving average but ultimately fell to around $20,000 in June that year, so some analysts are warning to be wary of the risk of a “false breakout.”

Analysis firm Marex states that whether BTC can continue to rise depends on three key factors: whether spot funds continue to buy at higher prices, whether a certain exchange's supply continues to tighten, and whether the derivatives market remains healthy and not overheated. If these three factors act together, Bitcoin could quickly open the way to the $85,000 range. Chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich pointed out that this round of pullback looks more like a short-term consolidation during the rise rather than a trend reversal. However, he also noted that the daily RSI previously entered overbought territory, and similar situations in the past have been followed by obvious corrections.

In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield has dropped from a peak of 4.46% at the beginning of the month to 4.32%, which is seen as a potential positive factor for risk assets.