EUR/USD Price Forecast: Reflects volatility contraction around 1.1750

The EUR/USD pair trades in a tight range around 1.1750 during the early European trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair consolidates as investors await Iran’s response to the United States (US) one-page peace plan, which restricts Tehran from uranium enrichment and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for all.

Global markets remain broadly risk-on as reports from Axios have shown that both the US and Iran are close to reaching a deal soon. S&P 500 futures are almost flat in the European trade, but gained almost 1.5% on Wednesday.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades with caution near 98.00.

Going forward, investors will focus on European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s speech and the US Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data for April, which are scheduled for Friday. Investors will pay close attention to both events to get fresh cues on the ECB and Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

EUR/USD technical analysis

EUR/USD consolidates around 1.1750 as of writing. The pair has been close to the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for almost a month, which is at 1.1708, reflecting a sideways trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays inside the 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating indecisiveness among investors.

On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA near 1.1708, and a daily close below this level would hint at a loss of immediate bullish control and open the door to a deeper pullback towards the April 1 high of 1.1627. On the topside, the pair could approach the April 17 high around 1.1850 if it manages to break above the May 6 high of 1.1797.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)