Bitunix analyst: The market enters a "data risk week", with BTC rising to $80,000, leverage and macro sentiment are both heating up, caution needed against a potential long squeeze

BlockBeats News, May 4 – The market has officially entered a period of intensive overlap between macro and geopolitical events. The US nonfarm payrolls, statements from Federal Reserve officials, US-EU tariff risks, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz have simultaneously become the focus of global capital attention. The US military has announced the launch of "Freedom Operations," deploying 15,000 personnel along with naval and air forces to intervene in maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, however, has warned that any intervention may be regarded as a violation of the ceasefire, and the conflict could further escalate.

Against this backdrop, BTC has continued its risk preference recovery following the ceasefire, rising above the $80,000 mark. From the liquidation heatmap, the 79,500–81,000 region above has seen a high-density short position liquidity squeeze, while the 77,000–78,000 range below serves as a short-term support zone for long positions, putting the market in a typical high-leverage hedging state.

It is worth noting that this week's macro data will directly impact the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and the overall risk asset sentiment. If nonfarm payrolls and inflation expectations remain strong, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep rates high may heat up again, further suppressing the valuation of risk assets. Conversely, if the data cools down, capital may have a chance to flow back into tech stocks and the crypto market.

Overall, BTC is currently not driven solely by internal crypto market sentiment but has entered a phase where both "macro events + liquidity structure" jointly determine the price. While short-term prices remain strong, high liquidity concentration at these levels also means that volatility could further intensify this week.