Multiple risks lurk behind new highs in US stocks, with the current "P/E ratio" second only to the dot-com bubble period

BlockBeats News, May 1, according to the Financial Times, despite the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index continuously reaching new historical highs recently, there are still multiple hidden risks in the market.

Valuations are at historically high levels. Data shows that as of April 2026, the S&P 500's rolling price-to-earnings ratio is about 24 times (historical average is about 16 times), while the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio (after cycle adjustment) has climbed above 37 times, an extremely high level historically, second only to the dot-com bubble period. This combination of "high valuations plus high expectations" means that the market's margin for error is extremely limited.

In addition, the current rally in US stocks is based on optimistic assumptions such as "AI-driven earnings, falling inflation, declining interest rates, and controllable risks." Any deviation in any of these variables could trigger amplified shocks in the market.