Chip Stocks Smash Fresh Record Highs! Nvidia Leads, TSMC & Intel Surge — How Far Can the AI Supercycle Run?【Stock Investor · Phase 1 | AI Sector】

Bitget2026/04/30 07:34

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1. Nvidia Leads the Chip Sector: NVDA Hits Another All-Time High

At the end of April 2026, the US stock chip sector saw a strong rebound, with Nvidia (NVDA) becoming the absolute focus.

Chip Stocks Smash Fresh Record Highs! Nvidia Leads, TSMC & Intel Surge — How Far Can the AI Supercycle Run?【Stock Investor · Phase 1 | AI Sector】 image 0

On April 27, NVDA hit an intraday high of $216.83 and closed at $216.61, setting a new all-time high with its market cap briefly exceeding $5 trillion. On April 28,

it slightly pulled back to $213.17 (-1.59%), but its year-to-date gain remains above 16%.

Meanwhile, TSMC reached a high of $404.98 on April 27 and adjusted to around $392 on April 28, up about 25% year-to-date. The overall semiconductor sector rebounded strongly with the Nasdaq, with ASML, Broadcom, Intel and other semiconductor giants rising together, benefitting from the Nasdaq's significant rally.

Core drivers for this rally: AI data center capital expenditures continue to exceed expectations, big tech Q1 earnings are releasing strong signals, and the market has quickly recovered from earlier geopolitical risks. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have reached new near-term highs several times since April.

The key point: As the absolute leader in AI GPUs, NVDA’s stock price fully reflects the explosion of end-to-end demand from training to inference, with the market closely watching the tight supply-demand balance of its hardware.

2. Investment Logic: The AI Super Cycle + Robust Performance Validation

Nvidia's investment logic is highly clear and compelling— AI computing power demand far exceeds supply, driving continued high growth in the company’s performance.

Last fiscal quarter (FY2026 Q4), data center revenues reached $62.3 billion, surging 75% YoY; the Blackwell platform has entered large scale mass production, and the next financial report is expected to be released after the close on May 20, with the market widely expecting revenues to hit new records.

Looking ahead, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Amazon and other giants are expected to sharply increase AI server and related capex in 2026 (over $600 billion in total for the four), from which NVDA, as the core GPU supplier, will fully benefit.

TSMC's Q1 revenue was around $35.9 billion (+35% YoY), with its HPC business accounting for 61%, further confirming strong demand in Nvidia's supply chain.

Other names in the sector are also robust:

AMD: The MI350 series has entered mass production and shipment, rapidly penetrating the AI server market with higher memory and excellent cost performance. Its datacenter business is expected to grow significantly in 2026, fully demonstrating strong AI computing demand.
Intel: Products like Gaudi 3 offer diverse options in specific inference scenarios, with datacenter AI business steadily expanding (Q1 DCAI revenue approximately $5.1 billion, +22% YoY), reflecting a diverse build-out and strong momentum in AI infrastructure.

Core logic is the "AI CapEx super cycle": the boom of AI Agents for both training and inference will further amplify GPU demand, benefiting the entire chip sector and ensuring high industry growth visibility in the mid- to long-term. NVDA maintains its lead with its full-stack advantage, while AMD and Intel’s standout results further validate the overall sector’s strength.

Although NVDA’s forward P/E is currently high, creating some short-term profit-taking pressure, valuations for the sector are likely to further rise with earnings delivery. The key focus is on May’s AI guidance, not the day-to-day price moves.

3. Short-term Fluctuations & Mid-Long Term Outlook: Focusing on NVDA's Core Catalysts

In the current market, despite Nvidia’s historic highs, short-term correction risks and earnings season sensitivity coexist, while implied volatility remains within reasonable bounds.

The pullback on April 28 was simply standard profit-taking, but the overall trend remains driven by the AI infrastructure super cycle. Global semiconductor industry 2026 revenue is expected to reach $1 trillion – $1.3 trillion (the highest growth in nearly two decades), and NVDA, as the clear sector leader, is set to stay at the forefront.

It is recommended to take the May 20 earnings report as a key time window, focusing on Blackwell shipment progress, supply chain updates, and full-year AI guidance.

In summary, the chip sector’s new highs are driven by NVDA’s strength. The investment thesis is solid: Capture short-term volatility opportunities, while in the mid- and long-term, AI computing expansion will continue to drive substantial earnings growth.

4. Trading Perspective: Focus on NVDA's May 20 Earnings Report

Chip Stocks Smash Fresh Record Highs! Nvidia Leads, TSMC & Intel Surge — How Far Can the AI Supercycle Run?【Stock Investor · Phase 1 | AI Sector】 image 2

Short term (before May 20): Watch for key support levels ( NVDA $200–210 range, TSM near $380). In the absence of broad negative market drivers, small positions can be used for rebound trading, but strict stop-losses and position controls must be set.

Earnings preview: The market generally expects NVDA’s Q1 revenue and guidance to beat forecasts. Focus on the Blackwell shipment timeline, gross margin trends, and full-year AI capital expenditure guidance. If above expectations with raised guidance → could continue uptrend; if guidance is flat or conservative → may trigger profit-taking pullbacks.

Mid- to long-term: The core is whether real AI demand and growth rates are sustainable. TSMC, as "the king of AI foundries", holds a solid supply chain position and high profitability—more defensive; Nvidia stands out for aggressiveness and high growth potential, but with more volatility.

Summary: The chip sector hitting new highs is a fact, and the AI story remains resilient. The market is shifting from "celebration" to "validation and differentiation." Short-term, flexibility to seize volatility; long-term, AI computing expansion still offers significant earnings tailwinds. Constructing a tech growth portfolio centered on Nvidia remains the mainstream choice at present.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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