Gold price rebounds about 1%, but monthly decline
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- On Thursday, spot gold rebounded by about 1% to above $4,590 per ounce, supported by dip buying. However, it has accumulated a decline of approximately 1.6% so far this month and is likely to record a monthly drop for the second consecutive month. Persistently high oil prices have triggered continued concerns in the market about inflation and interest rates staying "higher for longer," which has weighed on gold prices.
- The Brent crude oil June futures price rose above $124, due to reports that the United States is considering military action against Iran to break the negotiation deadlock, intensifying worries about further disruptions to Middle Eastern exports. KCM Trade analysts stated that rising oil prices are driving up inflation expectations and interest rate forecasts, thereby diminishing gold’s attractiveness.
- The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with a decision vote of 8 to 4—the largest split since 1992. The policy statement highlighted growing concerns over rising inflation, and three decision-makers opposed sending signals leaning towards a rate cut.
- Traders have completely ruled out the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates this year. The market now expects a 30% chance of a rate hike before March 2027, a sharp rise from about 5% the previous day.
- Trump is negotiating with oil companies on how to mitigate the impact of a potential months-long blockade of Iranian ports by the United States. Analysts say dip-buying momentum and expectations for a peaceful resolution of the conflict are providing some support to gold prices.
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