Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve put pressure on gold prices to continue falling, and weekly adjustments may continue.

新浪财经2026/04/30 03:04

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By:新浪财经

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Source: Huitong Finance

　　During Thursday's Asian session, XAU/USD saw a modest rebound but remains in a volatile consolidation, hovering near a four-week low and trading around $4,560, reflecting markedly cautious market sentiment. The core reason for this pullback is the Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged while issuing a hawkish policy signal, driving both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields higher and thereby reducing gold's appeal as a safe haven and store of value.

The Federal Reserve's maintenance of interest rates, combined with the hawkish tone, led both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to rise in tandem, directly undermining gold's safe-haven and hedging attraction.

Federal Reserve Chair

Jerome Powell, in his last press conference during his term, stated that he would remain in his position as governor until relevant uncertainties dissipate, emphasizing that the Fed's independence is facing challenges. This statement, combined with uncertainties over the policy path, has caused market participants to be divided over future rate directions. Meanwhile, the Fed's decision to hold rates at the 3.50%-3.75% range, with an 8-4 vote, marks the greatest internal split since 1992, further reinforcing the market’s perception of policy uncertainty.

The meeting's outcome signaled the possibility of greater disagreement over future policies, intensifying the market's sense of uncertainty.

　　On the macroeconomic data front, the U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders rose sharply by

3.3%

, significantly above both the previous reading and expectations, indicating that corporate investment continues to strengthen, especially with increased spending in areas related to artificial intelligence. This data reinforces market expectations for economic resilience while also heightening concerns about a rebound in inflation. Meanwhile, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose to

4.43%

and the U.S. dollar index

climbed to

98.96

, reflecting continued capital flows into dollar-denominated assets and exerting direct pressure on gold.

From a market sentiment perspective, traders are reassessing the future interest rate trajectory. Currently, the market estimates that by the Federal Reserve’s meeting in April 2027, the probability of a rate hike is about

29%

. This expectation indicates that markets have not completely ruled out the possibility of further tightening, thereby limiting the room for a gold rebound. Since gold itself does not generate interest income, its attractiveness relatively decreases in an environment where rates rise or remain high.

Technically, gold's daily chart structure has shifted to a volatile and bearish tone, with prices nearing the four-week low in the

$4,510 region. The overall trend points downward. The current price has fallen below the critical zone of $4,550; if it further loses the $4,500 psychological level, the next supports will be at $4,480 and $4,350

, with the key medium- to long-term support near $4,260. In terms of momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the oversold area, suggesting a potential for a technical rebound in the short term, but bearish momentum remains dominant overall.

　　On the 4-hour chart, gold continues to move within a distinct downward channel, with short-term moving averages in a bearish alignment and limited rebound strength. If the price fails to reclaim

$4,600

to the upside, the bearish trend will be difficult to reverse; additional resistance levels above are

$4,750

and

$4,850

. In general, short-term price action remains dominated by volatile consolidation.

　　Editor’s summary:

　　The current gold correction reflects a repricing of expectations regarding interest rates and inflation. With the dollar strengthening and Treasury yields rising, gold's safe-haven characteristics are suppressed and its short-term outlook remains weak. However, in the medium to long term, should inflation persistently rise or if geopolitical risks intensify, gold still has potential for a rebound. The future market focus will be on the Federal Reserve’s policy path and changes in inflation data, so investors must remain cautious in a highly volatile environment.

Editor: Zhu Henan

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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