EUR/CAD holds above 1.6000 as rising energy prices reinforce odds of cautious ECB stance

EUR/CAD moves little after two days of gains, trading around 1.6010 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross may rise as the Euro (EUR) draws support from surging energy prices, which have strengthened expectations around the European Central Bank (ECB) cautious outlook. Focus will also shift to Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence report for additional clues on the region’s economic outlook.

Investors are closely watching the upcoming April ECB policy meeting due on Thursday, where policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. The ECB is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach as it assesses the impact of recent economic data and evolving geopolitical risks.

The upside of the Euro is offset by the strength of the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), which could be attributed to higher oil prices, given Canada’s status as the largest crude exporter to the United States (US).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price gains ground, trading around $94.80 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude oil prices advance on rising supply concerns amid stalled US–Iran peace talks. US President Donald Trump called off that delegation to Pakistan to potentially discuss directly with Iran. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that his nation won’t enter “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade.”

Crude oil prices receive support from heightening fears of prolonged disruptions as traffic through the strategic waterway remains largely restricted due to Iran’s controls and the US naval blockade.