Oil: Supply shock revives stagflation worries – OCBC

1. U.S. equities gained over the week, while crypto assets declined, reflecting a divergence in risk appetite. From October 3 to 9, the S&P 500 rose 1.15% and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.24%, while BTC, ETH, and SOL fell 2.31%, 6.84%, and 7.99%, respectively. The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.27%, and although the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined 3.3 basis points, it remained elevated at 5.244%. High funding costs therefore continued to weigh on risk asset valuations. 2. Weak employment data have not eliminated inflation concerns, while AI and on-chain finance face growing scrutiny over commercial viability. September nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000, yet the minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting still pointed to the possibility of further rate hikes before year-end. This week's CPI release and major bank earnings will provide important tests of growth and inflation pressures. Revenue recognition and reporting practices in AI, underlying asset rights in RWA, and operating costs for Layer 2 networks are also becoming increasingly important measures of commercial viability. 3. Bitget has completed its phased service restoration, while the Bitget Alliance Program continues to support clients' trading and capital management needs. We completed the planned restoration on October 2 and replenished the Protection Fund to more than $300 million on September 30. According to DefiLlama, assets tracked on the platform rebounded from approximately $5.647 billion on October 1 to $6.223 billion on October 11. This report also outlines VIP level protection, user rewards, and institutional fee incentives to help high-value clients plan their trading activities according to their account type. Assets to watch: BTC, ETH, SOL, SUI, PUMP, gold, JPM, BAC, and ASML. Key areas of focus this week: The October 14 U.S. CPI release; bank net interest income and credit costs; AI cash flow generation; and post-recovery trends in assets held on Bitget, settlement efficiency, and trading conditions. Market data are current through October 9 or the latest local trading day. Official announcements and promotion terms were reviewed through October 12.