QCP: BTC rebounds to $74,000 alongside risk assets, but the market remains skeptical about the US-Iran agreement

ChainCatcher reports that, according to QCP Group analysis, BTC rebounded overnight alongside risk assets, recovering to the mid-74,000 US dollar range, triggered by news of a preliminary US-Iran framework agreement. However, long-term yields barely moved, gold remained at high levels, and the bond market did not follow suit, indicating that this rebound is merely a headline-driven risk relief rather than a substantive geopolitical resolution.

The core issue is uranium enrichment—Iran’s current enrichment level is 60%, while the US requires it to be reduced below 20%. Iran has yet to signal compromise, and this matter has remained unresolved since 2015. In terms of crypto market structure, BTC spot prices are moving upward slowly, amid negative funding rates and low open interest, suggesting that bears are still resisting, driving a short squeeze. However, the options market has not confirmed a breakout—short-term ATM volatility remains around 40, and one-month volatility is still below three-month, with demand for downside protection continuing to outweigh the willingness to chase upward momentum.

On a macro level, the net rate cut space for the Federal Reserve this year is close to zero, and liquidity conditions remain tight. QCP believes that this round is essentially a geopolitically-driven relief rally rather than a fundamental shift in the macro landscape, and the market should be wary of the risk of a pullback after the rebound.