Is national debt pushing the United States towards bankruptcy? Is it still necessary to hold gold?

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新浪财经2026/04/15 07:36

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By:新浪财经

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Source: China Gold News

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell admitted that the $39 trillion national debt is "not unsustainable," but warned that if action is not taken soon, the current trajectory will "not end well."

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Currently, the Federal Reserve interest rate is between 4% and 5%. In the future, interest costs could reach 5.5% of the U.S. GDP, making debt repayment a major constraint on the federal budget. If this risk continues to rise, markets will focus even more on this issue, which is also why diversified investment strategies are vital.

　　The safe-haven and monetary attributes of gold have been in high demand in recent years. The market has re-evaluated the possible outcome of the Strait of Hormuz dispute, and today the international gold price has returned above $4,800/ounce, indicating market optimism. However, whether the upward trend in international gold prices has truly re-established itself remains to be seen.

　　Compared to international gold prices, the sharp rise in international silver prices (a common feature of risk-on precious metal rallies) indicates that investors are not just seeking safe havens, but are actively increasing their exposure in complex markets in pursuit of further gains.

　　Giovanni Staunovo, commodities analyst at UBS Group, said that after the Middle East conflict ends, commodities such as gold and oil could continue to rise sharply in price. However, investors holding large positions in gold should also consider diversifying their portfolios to include other commodities.

Although geopolitical risk premiums may gradually fade, commodity fundamentals still provide support. In the future, copper and aluminum supply may still face shortages. For those who favor gold, moderate allocation to gold can enhance portfolio diversification and help hedge against systemic risk. For investors who already have substantial gold exposure and unrealized gold gains, UBS recommends broadening commodities investments to include assets like copper, aluminum, and agricultural products to further diversify future sources of return.

　　UBS continues to believe that international gold prices may rise to $5,900–$6,200/ounce this year. Gold is increasingly being used as a hedging tool against the widespread impact of conflicts, as it mainly helps guard against risks such as currency depreciation, expanding fiscal deficits, and global economic slowdown triggered by geopolitical conflicts.

　　Although short-term inflation risks from rising global energy prices and possible Federal Reserve rate hikes have raised market concerns—and neither favors higher international gold prices—UBS believes the probability of further rate hikes is low. The longer the Middle East conflict persists, the greater the risk of negative economic impact, which is likely to boost safe-haven demand for gold.

The potential demand for gold remains strong, and structural trends will continue to enhance gold’s appeal. Structural trends such as rising government debt, central banks and global investors seeking to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar through diversified investments, are expected to support the long-term outlook for international gold prices. UBS remains optimistic about international gold prices and believes gold remains an effective portfolio diversification tool.

Editor: Zhu Henan

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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