IMF: Middle East war intensifies uncertainty regarding the economic outlook for emerging markets, with risks leaning toward a deeper recession

Consumer prices in emerging markets and developing economies are expected to rise by 5.5% in 2026, 0.7 percentage points higher than the January forecast. The economic growth rate for emerging markets in 2026 is 3.9%, lower than the 4.2% forecast in January; the growth rate for 2027 is expected to be 4.2%, higher than the January forecast of 4.1%. Iran's GDP is projected to shrink by 6.1% in 2026, 7.2 percentage points lower than the January forecast; output growth in 2027 is expected to be 3.2%.