Allegations of Insider Trading Related to Iran Conflict Surface

On April 10, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal on April 9, more than $760 million in crude oil futures contracts changed hands just about 15 minutes before U.S. President Trump suddenly announced on March 23 that the U.S. would pause its strikes against Iran. On March 23, Trump posted on social media that the U.S. and Iran had engaged in 'very good and productive' dialogue over the past two days, and that the U.S. had decided to 'delay' strikes on Iranian power plants by 'five days.' According to data from Dow Jones Market Data, over $760 million in crude oil futures contracts were traded in less than two minutes, approximately 15 minutes before Trump's post. The report also revealed that this week, three accounts registered on the U.S. prediction market site Polymarket profited over $600,000 from 'accurate bets' that the U.S. and Iran would announce a ceasefire. The unusual trading activities have raised widespread questions in the market, with suspicions that someone may have had advance knowledge of internal information regarding adjustments to Trump administration policies and took the opportunity to profit.