The ceasefire celebration cannot hide the aftermath; oil prices have dropped by 40% but are still significantly higher than before the war.
- The institutional columnist Jamie McGeever pointed out that the relief rally in global markets triggered by the ceasefire agreement and the sharp drop in oil prices is not surprising, but the economic outlook after the initial excitement fades will be far more severe than investors currently believe.
- Even disregarding the very real risk that the two-week ceasefire agreement may collapse and oil prices may return above $100 per barrel, the economic damage caused by the past six weeks of war will persist for a considerable period of time.
- On Wednesday, the Nasdaq Index had already returned to its level before the US-Israel attack on Iran on February 28, and the S&P 500 Index was not far behind, with the buy-the-dip mentality once again pulling Wall Street back from a series of shocks.
- TD Securities strategists warned that the new normal will be completely different from before the war; it may take several months for the normalization of energy supply, inflation, growth, and monetary policy to become clear.
- In the next six weeks, the decline in gasoline, jet fuel, utilities, and fertilizer prices is unlikely to keep up with the surge seen in the previous six weeks, leaving households and businesses to face energy costs far higher than levels on February 27, which will inevitably put pressure on spending and profits.
- Although US oil futures have fallen 20% from the peak of the war last month and recorded the largest single-day drop in five years on Wednesday, they are still 40% higher than pre-war levels and about 60% higher than the same period last year; this base effect continues to pose a threat to the overall inflation outlook.
- As energy costs are gradually passed through to utility, food, and manufactured goods prices, it will likely be difficult for US annual inflation to consistently stay below 3% this year, and the probability of reaching 4% may be higher than that of falling back to the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
- Experts estimate that at least 10 million barrels of crude oil must pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily to bring substantial relief to oil prices, which would only restore volumes to half the pre-war level—a scenario that is nearly impossible to achieve in the short term.
- Stagflation pressures will be significantly stronger than before the war, and governments' fiscal positions will worsen under the dual squeeze of crisis spending and rising debt service costs; persistent policy uncertainty is diminishing central banks' willingness to cut rates and increasing the tendency to raise them.
- Citigroup's Head of Equity Trading Strategy, Stuart Kaiser, admitted he would not chase the S&P 500 Index for further gains; in an environment fraught with economic risks, prudence is the wise choice.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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