Economists: The most frightening thing is not the current inflation, but the potential "aftershocks" that may emerge months or even years later.

```htmlGolden Ten Data reported on April 9 that the market generally expects the US March CPI annual rate to rise to 3.4%, which is higher than last month's 2.4% and will mark the largest year-on-year increase in two years. Based on previous incidents during oil market shocks, the most likely commodities to see price hikes are aviation fuel, steel, aluminum, natural gas, fertilizers, and plastics. Industries that require these materials are already feeling the pressure. The Iran war has lasted for several weeks, and concerns have extended from the initial impact of rising oil prices to the compounded effects of a prolonged conflict. For an increasing number of economists, the most frightening part is not the immediate problem but the “aftershocks” that may only appear months or even years later. The CEO of JPMorgan referred to inflation as the “fly in the ointment” that could undermine stock market returns in 2026. Harvard University professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund Ken Rogoff recently discussed a neglected impact of the war: increased military spending and its potential effects on the already strained US budget deficit. He noted that this situation carries the risk of a surge in bond yields, which could damage the stock market and affect US affordability. Rogoff also stated that the current supply disruptions caused by the Iran war are enough to keep oil prices elevated for a year.```