Three Things –

Possible Agreement with Iran: Uncertainty Remains

There has been ongoing speculation about a deal with Iran, but the likelihood of a lasting agreement was always slim. The situation was too politically sensitive, especially with mortgage rates at 6.5% and gas prices exceeding $4 per gallon. It was unrealistic for the United States to maintain elevated oil prices, particularly during a mid-term election cycle.

The key question is whether this brief period had any significant impact on the economy. Fortunately, current data suggests the labor market has not suffered notable harm. Our analysis of real-time FICA figures supports this observation.