After two weeks of suspending actions against Iran, why has the gold price remained steady at 4815?
On Wednesday (April 8), during Asian trading hours, international gold prices continued their upward oscillation, once approaching $4,815/ounce, demonstrating remarkable resilience. Although Trump announced a two-week suspension of military action against Iran, which temporarily eased tensions in the Middle East, gold did not correct. Instead, it attracted renewed capital allocation, underscoring strong support below and highlighting the still robust bullish market sentiment.
[News Briefs]
The current rise in gold is showing a "dual-engine drive" pattern: it relies not only on risk aversion but is more strongly supported by inflation expectations and policy uncertainty. Despite Trump’s announcement of a two-week halt to military action against Iran and the reopening of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which eased fears of an energy supply cut-off, gold prices did not retrace, and instead consolidated strongly around $4,815.
The core logic lies in the fact that while the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of the world's seaborne energy, is temporarily open, a risk premium for its operation still exists; combined with the transmission effects of a previous surge in oil prices, rising energy costs are now extending the period of high inflation, thereby limiting the scope for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Market expectations for rate cuts within the year have now fallen to around 40%. This “high interest rates + renewed inflation” combination enhances gold’s value as a hard asset against inflation.
Furthermore, the macro-level game is far from over. Although the short-term ceasefire has given the market some breathing space, future negotiations are fraught with uncertainties; if the situation reverses, safe-haven funds will quickly return. Therefore, gold is currently caught in a complex tug-of-war between geopolitical risk and monetary policy, exhibiting both risk-aversion and inflation resilience simultaneously.
[Latest Gold Market Analysis]
From a technical perspective, gold remains firmly entrenched within its daily ascending channel, and the overall bullish trend remains intact. Currently, the price is operating at high levels, with the $4,750 region below providing strong support as the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range, while $4,850 above acts as the key resistance the bulls must overcome; once this is effectively broken, there may be significant room for the upside to expand.
In terms of momentum, although the bulls still dominate, the pace of gains has slightly slowed, indicating market caution at key levels. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices display a typical high-level consolidation pattern, with bulls and bears repeatedly contesting in a narrow range. If gold pulls back and confirms stability above $4,750, the probability of reaching new highs will sharply increase; conversely, if this level is lost, technical selling could be triggered, leading to a deeper correction. Overall, gold is currently at the intersection of macro variables and technical patterns—high-level oscillation may become the main theme.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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