OCBC Bank: Asian central banks still have some room to respond to stagflation risks

金十2026/03/25 09:01

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Golden Ten Data reported on March 25 that economists at OCBC Bank said the Middle East crisis is shifting the interest rate trajectories in some parts of Asia. Analyst Lavanya Venkateswaran stated that central banks which previously leaned towards further (albeit limited) monetary policy easing—such as the central banks of Thailand, the Philippines, and India—will no longer consider rate cuts. In addition, OCBC Bank has withdrawn its expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut by Bank Indonesia and now expects the country to keep rates unchanged until 2026. In some regions, the possibility of rate hikes is rising, though this largely depends on how long and to what extent energy prices continue to rise. As policy interest rates in most parts of the region are at or near neutral levels, Venkateswaran believes that policymakers can afford to wait and observe. This allows them to guard against stagflation risks, which were less significant during the shocks in 2022, given that inflation was higher at that time and policy rates were not at historical lows.

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Latest Update October 9 – The Financial Times reported on Thursday that Starbucks (SBUX.O) has explored a potential acquisition of Chipotle (CMG.N). This move would bring CEO Brian Niccol back to the Mexican burrito chain he once led. Starbucks declined to comment, saying the company remains "fully focused" on its business turnaround. Chipotle's stock fell about 4% to $31.32 on Friday, after surging 6.2% in the previous trading session. Limited strategic rationale BTIG expressed "high skepticism," stating that the deal does not make sense operationally, would cause significant dilution for Starbucks shareholders, and would disrupt management operations. "Over the years we've heard many stories about multi-brand acquisitions... but few have materialized, and even fewer have succeeded," BTIG noted. William Blair pointed out that Starbucks’ $9.4 billion net debt as of June makes it difficult to finance an acquisition and could push the combined company’s leverage ratio to about six times—considered high for the restaurant industry. D.A. Davidson stated the probability of the deal succeeding is 20% or less, given the significant differences between the brands and the apparent lack of clear synergies. Raymond James noted that due to the low overlap in menus, supply chain benefits are likely limited, while performance among multi-brand restaurant platforms has been mixed. eMarketer’s Suzy Davidkhanian commented that Niccol's familiarity may reduce execution risk, but investors might still see the deal as a "costly distraction" during Starbucks’ transformation. (For the convenience of non-English speakers, Reuters automatically translates its reports into several other languages. Automated translation may be inaccurate or fail to include necessary context; Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translated text and provides it solely for readers’ convenience. Reuters accepts no responsibility for any damage or loss resulting from the use of automated translation functions.)

路透社•2026/10/09 16:16