When is the UK Services PMI and how could it affect GBP/USD?

The UK Services PMI Overview

The United Kingdom (UK) docket has the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for March to be released by the S&P Global on Tuesday, later this session at 09:30 GMT.

S&P Global Services PMI is expected to come in at 53.0 in March, inching down from 53.9 recorded in the previous month.

How could it affect GBP/USD?

GBP/USD may remain subdued if the S&P Global Services PMI meets expectations, potentially adding downward pressure on the Pound Sterling (GBP) amid persistent risk aversion linked to the Middle East concerns. Traders will shift their focus toward the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales data due on Wednesday.

The Pound Sterling may strengthen as the Bank of England’s (BoE) outlook points to an extended pause due to inflation concerns linked to surging oil prices. Analysts expect possible rate hikes in 2026. The BoE held rates steady at 3.75% at its March meeting, in line with expectations.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the British Pound amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict. Geopolitical risks have intensified as US-aligned Gulf states move closer to direct involvement in the Iran conflict. Potential attacks on critical energy infrastructure would raise fears of broader regional instability. Traders remain focused on the incoming flash S&P Global US PMI for March due later in the day, which could provide fresh insights into the health of the US economy.

Technically, the GBP/USD pares its daily losses and is trading around 1.3420 at the time of writing. The immediate barrier lies at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.3446, aligned with the potential level of 1.3450. On the downside, the nine-day EMA at 1.3381 is acting as an immediate support.