EUR/USD: Volatility signals questioned after energy shock – Commerzbank

Delta Air Lines lowers its annual profit forecast due to a $6 billion increase in fuel costs; sharply rising ticket prices test travelers’ willingness to pay. The company’s refinery business is expected to generate $700 million in profits to help offset the impact of fuel costs. Rajesh Kumar Singh, Reuters Chicago, October 9 – Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) lowered the midpoint of its annual profit forecast by nearly a quarter on Friday, as surging fuel costs offset the positive effects of strong travel demand and higher ticket prices. This downgrade highlights the increasingly severe challenges faced by U.S. airlines: if fuel prices remain high, will passengers be willing to accept further price hikes? Airlines have already increased ticket prices considerably this year, and analysts warn that further hikes could test travelers’ willingness to continue spending. The Atlanta-based airline expects its annual fuel spending to increase by about $6 billion compared to last year. Its third-quarter fuel expenses jumped 62% year-on-year to $4.1 billion, more than $500 million higher than July’s expectations. When asked about the reasons for the revised forecast, Delta CFO Erik Snell told reporters, “It’s entirely a fuel issue,” noting that crude oil and refined jet fuel prices have both increased since the summer. Delta now expects adjusted annual earnings per share of $5.10–$5.60, down from its July forecast of $6.50–$7.50. According to data from London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the new median of $5.35 is below analysts’ average forecast of $5.46. The company expects an adjusted pre-tax profit of $4.5 billion in 2026. According to LSEG, third-quarter adjusted earnings per share were $1.72, slightly below the average analyst forecast of $1.76. Its adjusted operating margin dropped from 11.1% to 9.4%. Delta is the first major U.S. airline to report third-quarter earnings; its competitors United Airlines (UAL.O), American Airlines (AAL.O), and Southwest Airlines (LUV.N) will release their results later this month. Ticket Price Increases According to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, in the first eight months of 2026, U.S. airlines spent $42.9 billion on fuel for scheduled flights, nearly $13.2 billion more than in the previous year, despite a slight decrease in fuel consumption. Strong demand and limited seat growth have helped airlines pass higher fuel costs onto passengers. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index, over the five months ending in August, average U.S. airfares increased about 25% year-on-year. With fuel prices remaining high and industry capacity growth set to further accelerate in the fourth quarter, analysts are closely watching whether airlines including Delta can raise ticket prices further without suppressing travel demand. Deutsche Bank analysts expect the industry’s proportion of fuel costs recouped through revenue to decline in the fourth quarter, with full recovery not expected until early 2027. Delta says demand remains strong. Snell noted that with fourth-quarter bookings already near 60%, the company expects revenue to increase by around 20% year-on-year. According to LSEG, Delta forecasts fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.15–$1.65, with the median $1.40 roughly in line with analysts’ average expectation of $1.39. Refinery Advantage Delta holds an advantage over other major U.S. airlines: it owns a refinery near Philadelphia, which Snell expects will generate $700 million in profits this year. “We own a refinery, which gives us a hedge—part hedge—on fuel prices that no other airline has,” he said. Delta acquired the Monroe refinery in 2012, which processes crude oil into jet fuel and other products. While Delta must still pay market prices for fuel consumed by its airline operations, refinery profits remain within the company. When the price spread between crude oil and refined products widens, this helps offset fuel cost pressures for airlines sourcing externally. However, this protection depends on refinery margins; when margins fall, the refinery may also incur losses. Nevertheless, the refinery can only partially ease the impact of rising fuel prices. Even with an expected refinery benefit of 40 cents per gallon, Delta forecasts its fuel cost to rise from $3.61 per gallon in the third quarter to $4.25 per gallon in the fourth quarter. Snell said fuel costs are expected to remain high for some time. “Ultimately, fuel prices will come down. As to when, we’re not sure,” he said. (For the convenience of non-native English speakers, Reuters offers automated translations of its reports into several other languages. Due to possible errors or lack of context in automated translations, Reuters does not guarantee the accuracy of automated translation texts and provides them only for reader convenience. Reuters assumes no responsibility for any damages or losses from use of automated translation featur

This week, Autodesk and Intuit are expected to record their strongest weekly gains in months, defying pressure on the overall technology sector. This strong performance signals a renewed optimism in the market regarding the growth prospects of the SaaS (Software as a Service) industry.

Combining the existing satellite capacity, SpaceX is supplementing its capabilities to upgrade from “occasional emergency connectivity” to “daily mobile service.” The satellite network provides wide-area coverage and fills ground blind spots, while low-frequency terrestrial networks improve connectivity inside buildings and in environments with complex obstructions. The two form a complement to each other.