AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bears have the upper hand near 0.7000; 200-EMA breakdown in play
The AUD/USD pair opened with a modest bearish gap on Monday and touched a one-week low during the Asian session, though it lacked follow-through selling. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.7000 psychological mark, down 0.25% for the day,
A further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, along with reduced bets for more rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), acts as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and weighs on the AUD/USD pair. However, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (Fed) hawkish stance offers some support to the Aussie and helps limit the downside for the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the near-term bias turns mildly bearish as the AUD/USD pair slips back below the gently rising 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, signaling fading upside control after last week’s recovery attempts stalled above 0.7100. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has moved below its signal and dropped back under the zero line with a modestly negative histogram, suggesting bearish momentum is rebuilding after a short period of balance.
Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 37 stays below the 50 midline without reaching oversold territory, reinforcing a downside tilt but leaving room for further weakness before exhaustion emerges. However, it would still be prudent to wait for a subsequent decline below the 0.6960-0.6950 horizontal support before positioning for an extension of the recent retracement slide from the highest level since June 2022, touched earlier this month.
On the upside, immediate resistance now appears at the 0.7030 area, where the 200-period EMA converges with the latest breakdown point. A sustained recovery above the said hurdle is needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the path back toward 0.7085 en route to the recent swing high at 0.7115.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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