Trump’s “48-Hour Ultimatum” Not Bought by Prediction Markets, Polymarket Shows Only 30% Chance of Hormuz Strait Being Open by End of April

According to Zhihui Finance, although Trump has set a 48-hour deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, prediction markets remain skeptical about the possibility of shipping returning to normal in the short term. On the Polymarket prediction platform, traders believe there is only about a 30% chance of traffic resuming as usual by the end of April, with this probability having sharply dropped in recent trading days as geopolitical risks have intensified.

Kalshi’s contracts show that the reopening timeline will be more gradual. The market signals about a 39% chance of traffic normalizing by May 15, around 53% by June 1, and 59% by July 1, indicating that market participants expect the disruption to continue into the second quarter.

Last Saturday local time, Trump stated that Iran must “fully reopen” the waterway within 48 hours, or its power plants would be bombed. In response, Tehran warned that if Iran’s fuel and energy facilities are attacked, Iran would target “all energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure in the region belonging to the American and Israeli regimes.”

In addition to information fatigue and exceptionally volatile markets, one of the growing challenges for investors is Trump’s lack of consistent messaging on the Iran conflict. Just before he issued the two-day ultimatum, the president had stated he was considering a “gradual drawdown” of US military actions against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20% of the world’s oil shipments.