Macro Outlook for Next Week: US and European PMI Data to be Released, Global Rate Markets See Intensifying "Hawkish Repricing"
PANews, March 21 — According to Golden Ten Data, over the past week, as the situation between the US, Israel, and Iran rapidly escalated and affected energy production facilities in the Gulf region, energy prices soared, inflation concerns intensified, and global interest rate markets saw increasingly hawkish repricing. With expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike rising sharply and liquidity tightening, the safe-haven logic of precious metals has given way to the siphoning effect of the US dollar. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are GMT+8):
- Tuesday 7:30, Japan February core CPI year-on-year;
- Tuesday 16:15, 16:30, 17:00, 17:30, France, Germany, Eurozone, UK March manufacturing/services PMI preliminary readings;
- Tuesday 21:45, US March S&P Global manufacturing/services PMI preliminary readings;
- Wednesday 15:00, UK February CPI month-on-month, UK February retail price index month-on-month;
- Wednesday 17:00, Germany March IFO business climate index;
- Wednesday 20:30, US Q4 current account, US February import price index month-on-month;
- Wednesday 22:30, US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending March 20;
- Thursday 20:30, US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21;
- Thursday (TBD), G7 finance ministers meeting, until March 27;
- Friday 7:00, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson delivers a speech;
- Friday 22:00, US March University of Michigan consumer sentiment final index, one-year inflation expectations final value;
- Friday 23:30, 2027 FOMC voting member, San Francisco Fed President Daly delivers opening remarks at a conference on macroeconomics and monetary policy;
The preliminary European and US March manufacturing and services PMI data released on Tuesday will provide an initial indication of business activity during the Iran conflict and the impact of soaring energy prices. As the US is a net energy exporter, its economy is considered more resilient than many European countries. Under the shadow of surging oil prices, the balance of Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions appears to be shifting back toward inflation. The UK February CPI data, to be released on Wednesday, will be a highlight among UK economic data in the coming week. The next test for the yen may be the nationwide CPI data for February, scheduled for release on Tuesday. In addition, driven by soaring energy prices and global central banks adopting a wait-and-see stance on monetary policy, rapidly rising US Treasury yields are gradually becoming a risk factor for the stock market.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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