Geopolitical factors by themselves are insufficient to drive gold prices higher
Gold Prices Defy Safe-Haven Expectations Amid Global Tensions
Although geopolitical risks have intensified, factors such as rising energy costs, a robust US dollar, and evolving interest rate forecasts have taken precedence over traditional safe-haven demand.
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Even as the conflict involving Iran has escalated, gold has declined by roughly 14% since the onset of hostilities. This trend underscores the dominant influence of macroeconomic elements—especially interest rates, dollar strength, and asset allocation—on gold’s short-term movements. Such behavior mirrors previous periods of market upheaval, where the need for liquidity often surpasses the appeal of safe-haven assets in the initial phase.
Gold’s performance following Russia’s invasion in 2022 serves as a notable example: prices initially climbed, but broader market forces soon took over.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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Gold prices rise Rs 1,500/10g; silver up Rs 3,100/kg ahead of US economic data, softer yields. Buy, sell or hold?
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