Oil: Geopolitical surge moderated by supply reaction – OCBC

101 finance2026/03/20 12:39

By:101 finance

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OCBC Revises Brent Forecast Amid Heightened Supply Concerns

Sim Moh Siong from OCBC notes that crude oil prices briefly approached USD120 per barrel following Iranian strikes, but later retreated as the United States indicated it would help stabilize supply and Israel hinted at a quicker reduction in tensions. In response, the bank has updated its Brent price forecast, projecting that prices will remain close to USD100 per barrel through the middle of the year, before gradually declining to around USD70 per barrel by early 2027. However, ongoing disruptions in shipping routes could continue to threaten supply stability.

Supply Disruptions Drive Upward Pressure on Oil Prices

Crude oil briefly surged toward USD120 per barrel after Iranian attacks targeted key energy facilities in the region.
OCBC now anticipates Brent prices will hover near USD100 per barrel in the coming months, with a slow decrease expected over the next few years.
Extended interruptions in shipping are compelling Gulf oil producers to reduce output, increasing the likelihood that short-term disruptions could lead to longer-lasting supply shortages.
Despite efforts to offset these disruptions, available alternatives—up to 10 million barrels per day—are insufficient to fully compensate for a prolonged closure of the Strait.

(This report was generated with assistance from artificial intelligence and subsequently reviewed by an editor.)

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